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隧道交易方法 (2009-03-03 21:17:38)

转帖:隧道交易方法 (2009-03-03 21:17:38)
THE TUNNEL METHOD (隧道交易方法)

Step 1.First, you need a charting service. Since most all electronic trading platforms have charts with technical indicators, this shouldn't be a problem.
首先你需要找个好的图表服务,由于目前大多数电子交易平台都有技术指标图形,这应该不难。

Create a 1 hour chart on whatever currency pairs interest you. Barcharts or candlesticks really make no difference. Overlay on this 3 things: 1) a 169 period [1 hour] ema [exponential moving average], 2) a 144 period [1 hour] ema, and finally 3) a 12 period [1hour] ema.
在你的平台上建一个你感兴趣货币对的1h的图形,棒型图还是蜡烛图都可以,没有什么大的区别,
叠加上三条均线(ema均线):1)一条ema(169)的均线;2)ema(144)均线;最后一条ema(12)的均线;
The 144 and 169 ema's create what I call the "tunnel". The 12 ema is an extremely valuable filter that you will want to have there all the time. I will talk more about this in the filter section.
建立的144,169这两条均线我叫隧道。Ema(12)是一个非常有价值的过滤器,你一直都需要他,我会在过滤这部分专门介绍他。
Step 2.Memorize or write down and keep next to your trading screen the following fibonacci number sequence: 1,1,2,3,5,8,13,21,34,55,89,144,233,377. For trading purposes, the numbers of interest are 55, 89, 144, 233, and 377.
第2步:记住或写下以下的费纳滋数列到靠近你的屏幕的位置,1,1,2,3,5,8,13,21,34,55,89,144,233,377。就交易的目的来说,最感兴趣的数字是34,55,89,144,233,377。

Step 3.Wait for the market to come into the area of the "tunnel". When it breaks ABOVE the upper tunnel boundary, you go long. When it breaks BELOW the lower tunnel boundary, you go short.
第3步:等待市场走进隧道的区域,如果向上突破隧道上轨,你就作多。如果跌破下轨边缘,你就做空。(这里的市场理解成K线,更好理解)
Step 4.Stops and reverse are placed on the other side of the tunnel.
第4部:止损或反转的位置在隧道的另一边。

Step 5.As the market trades in your direction, you take partial profits at the successive fib numbers respectively, with the final portion of your position left on until one of the following conditons occur: 1) market hits the last fib number [377 pips] from the ema's, or 2) the market eventually comes back to the tunnel and violates the other side.
第5步:当市场按你交易方向进行时,你按费纳滋数列逐一兑现部分利润离场,留下部分最后一部分头寸直到出现以下情况时再结清:1)K线碰到最后一个费纳滋数字(377点)或2)K线最终回到了隧道碰并且到了另一边。

Example: GBP/USD is trading at 1.8500. The ema's are as follows: 144- 1.8494, 169- 1.8512. The market breaks 1.8494, and you sell at 1.8492. Your stop and reverse is now at 1.8512. Over the following hours, market starts to go down. 40 minutes after you put position on, cable is at 1.8440. You can use for computation purposes either tunnel boundary or the median of the tunnel. Ema's are still the same, so if you use the median, 55 from 1.8503 is 1.8448. You should have taken part of the position off at 1.8448. Market does nothing rest of day. Stop can be moved down to protect position or left alone at tunnel. You are now looking for price to be 89 pips away from the ema's. Since 55 was already passed, it no longer concerns us in this cycle. A couple of days later, cable is at 1.8300 and the median of ema's is 1.8410 [1.8400 - 1.8420]. You should be out of another portion of the position at 1.8321. Market bottoms here and in the next 2 hours, cable screams to 1.8535. Your remaining short position is covered at upper tunnel boundary of 1.8420, and you are now long from this point as well. Since you are long, you would now take partial profits at 1.8475 and 1.8509.
例如:GBP/USD 在1.8500位置交易,EMA状况如下:ema(144)-1.8494,EMA(169)-1.8512.K线跌破1.8494,你就在1.8492位置作空,你设定的止损或反转点现在就是1.8512。在接下来的几小时,市场开始向下走,40分钟你开仓后,到了1.8440。你可以用计算机计算结果隧道边缘或者隧道中央了。ema还是一样的,所以如果你用隧道中央,从1.8503到1.8448是55点,你可以在1.8448位置了解部分头寸。接下来一天里市场无所作为,止损可以移动到保护头寸或任由其在隧道内。现在你寻求由ema下来的89点的价位了。由于55点已经过了,我们不再关心这个循环了。几天以后,到了1.8300的位置,中线ema是1.8410(1.8410-1.8420)。你必须在1.8321位置出来另一部分头寸。这就是市场的底了,2小时后,涨到1.8535。你的剩余头寸在上轨上缘1.8420位置了,现在你最好做多。由于你现在做多,你可以将空头头寸在1.8475或1.8509结回部分利润。

This is a fairly typical example.

If you were to just stick to this basic model, you account would grow very well over time. Las Vegas was built with far fewer percentages in the casino's favor.
如果你一直按此基本模式操作,你的账户会一直这样增长下去。Las Vegas在Casino百分之几的支持下建立了这个模型。

In case you haven't figured it out, this model cuts your losses very short. By definiton, you can't lose very much on a single trade from your initial entry position.. On the other side, you take some quick profits at the 55 level which satisfies the scalper in you, and you have positioned yourself for bigger profits in the long run should the market keep going in your favor. By definition, you are letting profits run.
万一你想像不到,这个模型对你的利润损失很小。明确的说,你不会在你的初始入点的单一交易中损失很多。另一方面,你在55点位置快速获得了利润足以满足剥头皮的要求(可以转回点差),你拥有赚取更多利润的头寸,在接下来的市场按你方向长期运行中。明显地,你让利润奔跑。
The Achilles heal of this model is when the market chops around the tunnel and gets you in and out multiple times for small losses. I will cover how to deal with this in the filters section.
这个模型的Achiles heal是当市场在隧道边缘盘整,让你多次进出会带来一些小的损失.我会在过滤部分告诉你如何处理隧道区的盘整。
That's it. This is the model. Fairly simple in its design, and easy to remember. Has all the things every local wants in a model, except the quick 2 pip scalps, which you can't do anyway. Cuts losses, and lets profits run. Yet for its design simplicity, the thought behind is more complex. Time to talk about that.
这就是,这个模型,设计上相当简单,容易记忆。这个模型能得到所有想要的吗,除了快达2点的头皮,你不能做什么外,减少损失,让利润奔跑,思想的背后很复杂,有时间说明他。
THE FILTERS
过滤
Filters are used to increase overall profitability and/or reduce overall losses. If a filter does not do one of these two things, then I do not use it. What good is a filter if it raises your profitability by 10% but only gets you into 1/3 as many trades? What good is a filter if it reduces losses by 10% - 20% , but also reduces profitability on every trade by half? I think you get the point.
过滤用于提高整个利润和减少整体损失。如果过滤器达不到以下两件事中的一件,我们都不能用他。什么是个好的过滤器?他提高你的利润10%,但仅仅过滤掉所有交易的1/3。什么是个好的过滤器?减少损失10-20%,也还在你所以有的交易中减少了50%利润。我想你知道选择哪个了。

Here are the filters the vegas team uses. [Yes, I have a team. There are 3 of us. We trade GBP/USD, USD/CHF, and the S&P e-mini futures contract. Each has a specialty. Mine is GBP/USD. We are each responsible for our main pair. One of us is always at the screen when markets are open. Positions are covered by other partners when away. We only tunnel trade.]
这是Vegas团队使用的过滤器。(是的,我一个小团队,我们三个人,交易GBP/USD,USD/CHF和S&P 电子迷你合约。每个人都有特长,我的特长是 GBP/USD,我们每个人负责一个货币对,我们中的一个人一直盯在屏幕上当开市后,照看着所有的人的头寸当其他离开的时候,我们只用隧道法交易)。

1.)Put the 12 ema [1 hour] on your screen with the rest of your indicators. When everything is at the same price [tunnel, current market price, 12 ema] sit up and take notice. When the market breaks away from the tunnel, there is a very high probability of a strong market move coming. I don't need Gann, because this gives me time, the square of time, and price all in equilibrium. When it breaks, it goes.
将EMA(12)及其他指标放到1h图上,当(隧道,现在的市场价,ema(12)处于一个价格时,严密注意。一旦价格脱离隧道,一个可能很大的很强的市场机会来了。我不需要江恩,因为着给我时间,时间正方,所有的价格平衡了,一旦突破,行情开始了。

Need proof? Well, go back on your favorite currency pair and check it out. In the first quarter of 2005, this filter alone produced 20 trades, 19 which were profitable in USD/CHF. In fact, as I write this, 1 trade is still on from about 3 handles ago. Since I am not responsible for Swissy, I'm not the guy pushing the button, only monitoring it when I'm at the screen [changing stops when needed, etc.]. But, the position is still on.
需要证明吗?哦,回头看看你喜欢的货币对检查一下,在2005年的第一季,这个过滤信号出现了20次交易机会,19次在USD/CHF上带来了盈利,实际上,在我写这篇文章时,一个交易从进出3次后还在进行。由于我不是负责瑞郎货币对的,也不是决定交易他的人,我仅是看住头寸的人(我只根据需要调整止损,等),但是,这个头寸还没平。

This filter is so profitable, we increase the size of our trading position when we see it develop and then happen.
这个过滤器如此能盈利,我们一旦看到这种情形出现,就增加交易的头寸。

When you go back and check it out, you will notice many times how it just misses a move by a few hours. It is an extremely profitable filter.
当你回头察看时,你会注意到很多次,几小时机会就出现了,这是一个具有相当盈利能力的过滤器。

We also define "same price" as being within 5 pips or so of being equal. Sometimes it turns out the signal is exact, but I don't think you have to split hairs on this. Within 5 pips is good enough for us.
我定义“相同价格”,指的是5点以内或者相同,有时证明信号是确切的,但我认为你不必吹毛求疵,5点对于我们来说足够了。

2.)We do not initiate new currency trading positions based on tunnel trading during the Asian time-frame. Anything between 5pm NY and Midnight NY is ignored for entry of new positions. Positions that are on are monitored as normal, i.e., everything else is the same. We will take profits if fib levels are hit. If we miss a move, then we miss a move. A missed move is just an opportunity cost. Chop-chop in Asia will eventually cost you more money than it is worth.
在亚洲市期间我们不开新仓,纽约时间下午5点到午夜避免开新仓,已开的仓密切注意,都一样,只要到达费那滋数列位置,就平仓兑现利润,如果错过了一个波动,就错过了仅仅是一个机会成本,亚洲市的盘整最终会比损失花费你更多的钱。

3.)News days that can have a significant affect on prices are ignored. That's right, we skip them for entry of new positions. Currently there is only 1 day per month which qualifies, and that is US Non-Farm Payrolls [NFP] which comes at 8:30 am NY time the first Friday of each month. Positions that are on are monitored as normal.
重大新闻日子会造成价格的剧烈波段避免开新仓。这是对的,我们跳过这些日子建立新的头寸。现在每月也就一天,每月纽约时间早上8:30分的非农数据,那一天不开新仓,但已有的头寸照常关注。(注:译者认为以有的头寸需设对冲止损)

4.)When the tunnel is very narrow [most of the time], do not just put stop on the other side of tunnel. If you do you get whipsawed to death. Use the hourly charts and the most recent hours of support and res. to make the call.
当隧道变的很窄(很多时候都这样),不要仅将止损设到隧道那一边,如果你那样做,会被反复折磨到死,用小时图的或最近几小时的止损或支撑来设止损。

If you are a newbie to trading, you will find this to be the most troublesome filter. If you are not familiar with trendlines, triangles, flags, pennants, and support and res. levels, then go get the eduation and come back. Simple but necessary advice.
如果你是交易的新手,你会发现这是一个很麻烦的过滤器。如果你不熟悉趋势线,三角形,旗形,细长三角旗形,阻力和支撑,你最好学习学习再回来。这是简单而必须的忠告。

I don't mean to infer that just because you know this technical stuff it's going to be a walk in the park. It's not. Let's make one thing perfectly clear. EVERY model has its vulnerable spot that seem to increase losses. For tunnel trading, this is one of the scenarios. Putting in the right stop is an art, not a science.
我不是说你会那些技术术语, 这事就会很简单。不。说明一句, 每个交易模式都有它的缺陷,看起来增加损失。在隧道交易上也一样。正确止损是一种艺术, 不是一个科学。
5.)We look for clean moves [1 bar] through the tunnel. This means your into profits almost from the get-go. You will not always get the clean moves. The longer the market stays in the tunnel chopping around, the higher the probability our entry decision will be made on a break of support or res. instead of the tunnel boundaries.
我们要的是一个干脆的突破(一跟棒)隧道边, 这意味着你几乎一入场便会盈利。但你不会经常得到干脆的突破。当市场留在隧道盘整区越长, 就越大机会你是以突破支持/阻力位进场, 而不是隧道边缘来进场

6.)We do not trade minor [contra-major] trend signals in a strong up or down market price trend. If the GBP/USD is in a strong price uptrend, we will not initiate new short positions on a break of the lower tunnel boundary. Why? Because the probability of success in getting past 55 from the ema is not very good. Past history tells us that, so I'm not looking to be the hero here and say "This time it's different." When market comes back through the tunnel on the upside, we will get back in on the long side.
在强的上升下降趋势中,我们不做小的 (反主流)的讯号。如果GBP/USD主流趋势是往上, 我们不会因为价格跌破隧道下边而开新空仓。为什么? 因此这样情况下, 从ema跌破55点的机会率不会很高。这是经验告诉我们的。我不会很英雄地说"这次不同的。"当市价回到并突破隧道上边, 我们会继续做多。

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If I have to tell you when the market is in a strong price move, I don't think you have been paying attention to the price movements of late.
如果我不得不在价格处于一个大的波动时告诉你, 那我认为你并没有留心最近的价格走势。

In a range-bound market, which we define as a market between 3 - 5 handles [or lower] in a 5 week time-frame, we trade both sides.
在折返的市场 ,就是我在5周图上定义的3-5次折返的,我两个方向都作。

Now, that's all we use. Can you use more? Can you invent your own? Can You change some of the definitions? Yes, absolutely. Invent your own filters, use an Elliot Wave filter, anything you think will help your trading.
哪,这就是我们用的隧道交易法。你能用的比这更多吗?你能创造出更多你的东西吗?你能改变其中的一些定义吗?是的,当然可以。发明你自己的过滤,利用艾略特过滤器,任何你认为对你交易有帮助的所有的东西。

SUGGESTED MODEL SYSTEM
建议的模型

Do I really need to mention money management?
我确实必须提及资金管理吗?

I didn't think so.
我不这样认为。
At a minimum you should be able to do 3 units to implement tunnel trading. Use the 55, 89, and 144 levels to take 1/3 off at each level. If you can do 4 units, use 55, 89, 144, and 233. 5 units is the preferable level, and you use 55, 89, 144, 233, and let one unit ride until crosses over tunnel boundary or it reaches 377.
最少你至少能下三个交易单位来执行隧道交易法,利用55,89,144来分次获取利润。如果你能做4个交易单位,用55,89,144和233来止赢。5个交易单位是比较完美的,你用55,89,144,233止赢,留下最后一个单位直到市场穿过隧道翻转或达到377来止赢。

Of course, you can make your units any size you want. For smaller traders, a unit size may be 10,000. If you do not have the money to trade 30,000 of something, then I would advise you to save up and come back when you do. If your account has $2,000 in it, you can easily implement tunnel trading with 10k units.
当然,你能自己决定每个交易单位的大小。对于小的交易者,一个单位的大小或许是10,000。如果你没有钱来交易30,000,我建议您存足钱再来交易。如果你的账户有2000$了,你可以轻松的用10k的单位来进行隧道交易。

One of the greatest advantages of this model is its flexibility in its design to allow you to choose the level of risk/reward you desire in trading. You can make this as aggressive or as conservative as fits your style. I will give an example of each. These are just examples, I'm not saying you have to do this. I'm only giving you these two to stimulate your brain. In the following day and weeks I am confident you will find an appropriate level for yourself.
这个模型最大的有利在于弹性地选择你期望的风险回报比来交易,你可以选择适合你的进取型还是保守型。我会给每个模型范例。这仅仅是例子,我不是说你要这样做。我给这些仅仅是为了刺激你的大脑,在接下来的几天或几周,我确信你会找到适合你的。

Example 1 - Very Aggressive
例1 -非常进攻型

Tunnel is pivot level for buy/sell. Above tunnel, buy breaks, sell at fib numbers. At 233 an 377, fade the move for retracement. Below tunnel, sell rallies, buy at the fib numbers. Use previous fib numbers in the move as stop loss points. This is very aggresive, and woul be appropriate for very short-term traders who have a time-frame of day-trading.
隧道是买卖的基准。隧道之上,买突破,在费那滋数列位置平仓。在233和377位置淡出等待回撤。在隧道之下,卖出,在费那滋数列位置买回。用前面的费那滋位置止损。这是相当进攻型的,这适合短线交易者,做日内交易。

Example 2 - Very Conservative
例2-非常保守型

Uses basic tunnel system with 12 ema. Only initiates on this signal. Looking for best possible probability trade. Willing to give up more profitability in return for less risk. Trades three units. Uses fib numbers 55, and 89 for 1/3 each. Leaves the other unit on until 233 or market price crosses over tunnel boundary. Allows trader to catch short-term [1-5 day] profit points, and also allows him/her to ride the major trend if one develops.
和隧道系统一起使用ema(12),仅在这个信号下建仓,寻找最好概率的交易机会。将在最小的风险下得到最好的收益。交易三个单位,用55,89止赢,留下最后一个单位直到233或者价格穿过隧道边缘止赢。允许交易者抓住1-5天的利润,而且一旦主要趋势生成就能抓到。

Like I said, these are just two of an infinite number of risk/reward senarios you can develop using this model. This is not some rigid system, where you have to do this or that. It is adaptable, with no right or wrong answers. This is why many locals from soybeans to bonds to gold and silver, oil, etc. use it. I've seen some people who have transformed this into a model you wouldn't recognize without knowing what tunnel trading offers.
象我说的,使用这个模型风险回报比仅仅只有两个不确定的数字。这不是一个刚性的系统,你要这样作或那样做。是适应性的,没有正确的或错误的答案。这是为什么许多使用者转到大豆、债券、金银、原油等市场去使用他。我看到一些人将他转换到你都不知道他在用隧道法交易什么。

When you get right down to it, once you have adapted it into your own trading style and personal risk model, tunnel trading will give you all you want. Momentum to catch the bigger moves over time, early profit points that allow you to catch short-term movements, and the lowest risk you can possibly have in a trade, because you are only risking 10 -25 pips on each trade. If your odds of success on each trade were 50-50 [they aren't this low], over time you would make a fortune. If you don't believe me, then do the math.
一旦你真正了解他,一旦你将他转变成适合你个人交易风格的模型,隧道交易法能给你所有你要的。动量让你抓住长时间的大波动,也允许你抓住短期的波动,实现早期的利润。因为你每次仅仅承受10-25嗲的风险。如果你能每次交易获得50-55点的利润(实际不是这么少),长期下来你会发财,如果你不相信我,就算一算。

Precisely because of this flexibility tunnel trading is the best model I have ever seen.
确切说因为隧道交易的灵活性,我认为是我看到的最好的交易模型。

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感谢!~
走具有个性特色的世俗道路!~

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谢谢分享!

因为隧道交易的灵活性,我认为是我看到的最好的交易模型。
“你永远不可能一劳永逸。时间和环境在变,因而你必须学会随之改变......”

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谢谢!

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不错。
防控风险 顺势而为

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XIEXIE

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谢谢

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非常感谢您的劳动

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